On a global scale only 1.25% of the installed wind power capacity, is from offshore wind farms. In recent years the UK government support for large wind capacity has driven wind farm development. Since 2010, all big wind turbine manufacturers such as Siemens, Clipper, Mitsubishi and GE established a UK presence.
However, in order to continue with a sustainable development in UK wind farms, a constant and long-term market plan together with supporting government policy will need to be implemented. A recent report prepared for Renewable UK examined different development scenarios for the period from 2015 to 2030, it reveals widely differing implications for the wind technology supply chain, as well as the policy drivers that will be needed.
Three Scenarios
The report lists three scenarios for the development of the wind farm sites: 1) ‘Aggregated Developer Appetite’, 2) ‘A Healthy Industry’ and 3) ‘Low Added Value’.
1) The aggregated developer appetite shows rapid development from the outset, with installations peaking at 8 GW in 2018 and then plunging. It would result in a very strong UK market if immediate decisions were taken on new UK manufacturing facilities.
2) The healthy industry scenario allocates a far more steadier and sustainable installation rate of around 4 GW a year.
3) The low-added value scenario assumes the worst case scenario, with installations in the range of 2 to 3 GW a year. This will result in lowering the opportunity for the supply chain.
The three scenarios would result in 42.7 GW, 23.2 GW and 14.1 GW of capacity by the end of 2020, respectively.
Of course, the power rating of the wind turbine will determine the amount of wind turbines needed to install a given capacity. Currently, the installed turbines are of an average size of 3.7 MW. As we go into the second phase of installations, a number of wind farms will be have installed turbines of 5—6 MW . For the rest of the phases to follow, most of the projects are expected to utilize larger wind turbines.
The delivery profile for each scenario is markedly different. Most importantly, the healthy industry scenario has a turbine production requirement spreading out into the 2020s and the more stable and consistent market in this scenario is likely to appeal more to the supply chain, with some 650 turbines required from 2016 onwards, a marked jump from the 350 or so anticipated in 2015.
Given the large lead times involved in wind turbine manufacture and logistics, it is clearly important that manufacturers establish facilities as soon as possible. From 2017, this scenario sees about 500 of the larger 5 MW turbines required per year. Therefore, there is a great opportunity to create ‘Green manufacturing jobs’ in the UK to satisfy the increasing demand. Also, such a development will push UK to become a leader in Renewable technology R&D, manufacture and supply.
