Technical breakthroughs and manufacturing improvements should keep the LED industry on track to improve performance and reduce costs at an appropriate rate. However, the process of achieving this is not a 100% complete.
Development of a volume market for general LED lighting depends on technical breakthroughs and manufacturing improvements that reduce costs per lumen by 10 times less than the current cost. This will allow LEDs to compete with fluorescents at price. The recent progress suggests that the industry looks on track of achieving this. That will make the retrofit of fluorescents with LEDs a very cost effective solution.
Strong demand for display backlights propelled the HB-LED sector to better than 50% growth in 2010, and 2011 will likely see another 50% jump. Displays should continue to drive double-digit growth through 2013-2014. However, as the displays sector matures, continued growth will be dependent on the quick development of significant demand for general LED lighting by 2015. Manufacturers are currently developing the technology through extensive R&D to make the final breakthroughs and reduce the manufacturing cost of LEDs.
